Nassim Nicholas Taleb, …….
The Black Swan:
“Do not waste your time trying to fight forecasters, stock analysts, economists, and social scientists, except to play pranks on them. They are considerably easy to make fun of, and many get angry quite readily. It is ineffective to moan about unpredictability: people will continue to predict foolishly, especially if they are paid for it, and you cannot put an end to institutionalized frauds. If you ever do have to heed a forecast, keep in mind that its accuracy degrades rapidly as you extend it through time. If you hear a “prominent” economist using the word equilibrium, or normal distribution, do not argue with him; just ignore him, or try to put a rat down his shirt”.
Vraag je je af: “wat is er werkelijk gebeurd?” “Wat gaat er werkelijk gebeuren?”.
“Wie ben jij?” “Wie ben ik?”. Wie? Wat? Waar? Wanneer? Waarom? Hoe?
Herken de zwarte zwanen en bouw een brug.
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